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Hollywood prediction markets: awards season and box office
Hollywood prediction markets let you trade yes/no contracts on entertainment outcomes, such as which film wins Best Picture. Kalshi and Polymarket US list some of these markets. This site covers the 2026-27 awards season, from the Grammy nominations on November 16, 2026 to the 99th Oscars on March 14, 2027, and box office markets.
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Short answer
Hollywood prediction markets let you trade yes/no contracts on entertainment outcomes, such as which film wins Best Picture. Kalshi (opens in a new tab) and Polymarket US (opens in a new tab) list some of these markets. This site covers the 2026-27 awards season, from the Grammy nominations on November 16, 2026 to the 99th Oscars on March 14, 2027, and box office markets.
Awards season at a glance
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Mon 16 Nov 2026 | Grammy nominations announced |
| Mon 7 Dec 2026 | Golden Globe nominations announced |
| Wed 6 Jan 2027 | Actor Awards nominations announced |
| Sun 10 Jan 2027 | 84th Golden Globes |
| Mon 11 to Fri 15 Jan 2027 | Oscar nominations voting |
| Tue 19 Jan 2027 | BAFTA Film Awards nominations announced |
| Thu 21 Jan 2027 | Oscar nominations announced |
| Sun 7 Feb 2027 | 2027 Grammy Awards |
| Sun 21 Feb 2027 | EE BAFTA Film Awards (London) |
| Sun 28 Feb 2027 | 33rd Actor Awards presented by SAG-AFTRA |
| Sun 14 Mar 2027 | 99th Oscars |
| September 2027 (day not announced) | 79th Primetime Emmy Awards |
Dates come from each organizer and can change. Last checked November 11, 2026.
How a Hollywood market works
Each contract asks a yes/no question with a fixed event, for example "Will <film> win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?" A Yes contract pays out if the answer is yes.
The price moves between 1 and 99 cents as traders buy and sell. A contract at 30 cents means traders as a group see about a 30% chance. It's a market estimate, not our prediction.
Every market has written rules that name the event and the source that settles it, usually the official winners announced by the organiser. Read them in the app before you trade.
Our guides
Sources
- Golden Globes timetable (opens in a new tab)
- Academy and ABC dates (opens in a new tab)
- Actor Awards calendar (opens in a new tab)
- BAFTA 2027 Film Awards (opens in a new tab)
- Recording Academy 2027 dates (opens in a new tab)
- Television Academy 2027 announcement (opens in a new tab)
Checked November 11, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
What are Hollywood prediction markets?
Exchanges where you trade yes/no contracts on entertainment outcomes, such as award winners or a film's box office. Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated platforms that list some of them.
Are Hollywood prediction markets legal in the US?
Kalshi and Polymarket US run as CFTC-regulated exchanges for US users. Availability depends on your state, so check your state's status before you sign up.
When are the Oscars in 2027?
The 99th Oscars are on Sunday, March 14, 2027. Nominations are announced on Thursday, January 21, 2027.
Do you predict winners?
No. We explain the markets, the dates and the rules. Prices are the traders' view, not ours.
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21+ · T&Cs apply · Terms
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.