Oscars Best Actor odds: markets split on Malkovich

Polymarket priced Malkovich at 51.1% at 11:00 UTC, Nov 11, 2026. Kalshi priced him at 44.0% at 11:02 UTC, Nov 11, 2026. These prices were read at different times, so the gap describes those two reads rather than two guaranteed, simultaneous trading opportunities.

The category is Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. This is a narrow look at the price disagreement, not a review of the performances or an announcement of official nominations. The ceremony is scheduled for March 2027, leaving a long period between this check and the result. For the full race, see our Oscars 2027 page.

How large was the Malkovich gap?

Subtract the printed Kalshi reference from the printed Polymarket reference: 51.1 minus 44.0 equals 7.1 percentage points. Keeping the decimal places matters. Rounding the prices to whole percentages first would change the gap you describe.

Kalshi's Malkovich quote had a 43¢ bid and 44¢ ask at 11:02 UTC, Nov 11, 2026. The reference price was 44.0%. Our pricing rule uses the last trade when it sits inside the current quote, otherwise the bid/ask midpoint.

That makes the reference a particular way of summarizing the market, not a separate offer sitting beside the bid and ask. You should check the order book if you want to know the price currently available for a trade.

The two venues also need to stay clearly named. A price observed on Polymarket's international platform is not evidence that Polymarket US lists the same contract. This comparison does not establish that a US reader can trade the international market.

Did Kalshi price every actor lower?

No. The direction reversed for the other two actors in this comparison.

Andrew Scott was priced at 21.5% on Polymarket at 11:00 UTC, Nov 11, 2026, and 24.0% on Kalshi at 11:02 UTC, Nov 11, 2026. Kalshi was 2.5 percentage points higher.

Matt Damon was priced at 14.5% on Polymarket at 11:00 UTC, Nov 11, 2026, and 17.0% on Kalshi at 11:02 UTC, Nov 11, 2026. Kalshi was again 2.5 percentage points higher.

That gives the check a more specific story than saying one platform is simply higher. Polymarket's international market assigned Malkovich a higher reference, while Kalshi assigned the two named challengers higher references. The disagreement concerned how the chances were distributed across these actors.

Those three comparisons do not describe the entire category. You should not treat the named actors as a complete list or add their prices together to manufacture a full probability distribution. This article covers only these three actors.

What can the price difference tell you?

It tells you that the captured market references differed. It does not tell you which venue will prove right, whether either price is a good trade or why the gap existed.

A price can reflect the orders present on a platform at a particular moment. Without a longer price history, you cannot call this gap a widening trend. Without a documented cause, you cannot attribute it to a review, campaign event or industry development.

The time horizon also matters when reading the story. A November comparison for a March ceremony leaves room for later information and price changes. This check is not a forecast that the gap will persist until the awards.

If you return to the market later, compare the same category and the same actor. A different awards category or a nomination contract would answer a different question, even if it displayed the same person's name.

How should you use this check?

Start with the named outcome, then the venue, time and price method. That order helps you see what the number actually measures. Keep percentage-point gaps separate from claims about a person's chances being a particular multiple of another figure.

The lead here remains the Malkovich difference. Scott and Damon provide useful context because the direction reverses, but they do not support a claim about every challenger or every awards market.

Kalshi (opens in a new tab) (Trade $25 Get $25) and Polymarket US (opens in a new tab) (deposit $10, get a $25 trading bonus), code VENICE. Polymarket US is a separate product from the international Polymarket platform behind the figures above. 21+. Terms apply, see below.

Sources

• Kalshi market data, 99th Academy Awards Best Actor, checked 11:02 UTC on November 11, 2026.
• Polymarket (international platform) market data, Best Actor, checked 11:00 UTC on November 11, 2026 (text only, not a partner link).
• Kalshi contract rules, Oscars Best Actor (kalshi.com, text only), read November 11, 2026.

21+. Trading involves risk.

Frequently asked questions

What was Malkovich's price?

Polymarket international priced him at 51.1% at 11:00 UTC, Nov 11, 2026; Kalshi at 44.0% at 11:02 UTC.

How big was the gap?

7.1 percentage points using those printed values.

Was Kalshi lower for Scott and Damon too?

No. Kalshi was 2.5 percentage points higher for each at the stated checks.

Are these Polymarket US prices?

No. The Polymarket figures are from the international platform.