Best Picture 2027: how the prediction market works

What the contract asks

Each film is an outcome tied to the same award. A Yes position on a film pays out if that film wins Best Picture under the market's rules, and a No position pays out if it doesn't. Because only one film can win, the outcomes split one event across all the possible winners.

The list is live and can change as the season goes on. A film on the list is not an Academy nominee and not a pick from us. It only means the platform has made that film an outcome.

Dates that shape the market

• 11 to 15 January 2027: Academy members vote on nominations.
• 21 January 2027: nominees are announced.
• 14 March 2027: the 99th Oscars ceremony.

Before nominations, the list can move with festival screenings, distributor campaigns and early awards. The nominations narrow the field to the films that can actually win. Guild awards and other ceremonies add public information before the final vote. None of these settles the market; only the Best Picture winner does. See our Oscars 2027 guide for every category and date.

An industry view

For people who work in film, the useful line is between the platform's list and the Academy's process. The Academy controls nominations, voting and the award. The platform controls which outcomes it lists, when trading closes and how it applies its rules after the result. A change in a film's campaign can change what traders know, but it doesn't guarantee a result, and this page is not an awards forecast.

Where to find it

See Best Picture on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) See Best Picture on Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)

21+. Trading involves risk.

Sources

Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and ABC, 99th Oscars dates (as on our Oscars 2027 page, checked 22 Oct 2026). Kalshi, "Oscar Winner: Best Picture" market page (checked 27 Oct 2026). Polymarket US, "Oscar Winner: Best Picture" rules (checked 27 Oct 2026).

Frequently asked questions

What is the Best Picture 2027 market?

A market titled "Oscar Winner: Best Picture" on Kalshi and on Polymarket US. Each film is an outcome tied to the winner at the 99th Academy Awards on March 14, 2027.

Are the listed films confirmed nominees?

No. A listed film is the platform's outcome, not an Academy nomination. Nominees are announced on January 21, 2027.

When is the ceremony?

Sunday, March 14, 2027. Academy members vote on nominations from January 11 to 15, 2027.

What decides settlement?

On the winner announced at the 99th Academy Awards. The rules on Kalshi and on Polymarket US both name the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences as the source. Read the rules on each market page before you trade.